Badenoch says Tories cannot form pact with Reform UK due to problematic nature
Survation MRP poll of over 8,000 voters shows 40% are willing to vote tactically, potentially pushing Reform UK from second to fourth place and costing it about 90 seats
In Brief
- •Survation MRP poll of over 8,000 voters shows 40% are willing to vote tactically, potentially pushing Reform UK from second to fourth place and costing it about 90 seats
- •Tactical voting could bring Labour close to a majority if left‑leaning voters shift en masse, with twice as many returning to Labour from the left as from the right since April
- •Badenoch publicly stated that the Conservative Party cannot partner with Reform UK because the party is too problematic
- •The poll indicates that Reform‑leaning Conservatives would consolidate, but Reform itself would risk being outnumbered seat‑by‑seat by coordinated voters
- •The model suggests that even with a higher vote share, Reform could lose seats if tactical voting is widespread
Why It Matters
The potential reshuffling of seats due to tactical voting could dramatically alter the balance of power in the UK Parliament, affecting policy direction and governance. Badenoch’s rejection of a pact with Reform UK signals a strategic divide within the Conservative Party, potentially limiting coalition options and influencing voter perceptions ahead of the next general election.
Key Details
- Tory‑Reform pact possibility
- No, Badenoch says problematic
- Potential seat loss for Reform
- ~90 seats
- Willingness to vote tactically
- 40% of surveyed voters
- Modelled seat change for Reform
- From 2nd to 4th place
- Shift of left voters to Labour
- Twice as many from left as right since April
Original Reporting & Sources
VNews is an independent briefing product. Original reporting remains credited to the following publishers:
This brief was synthesized automatically using attributed third-party reporting. VNews is a digital news publication produced under the VContent Group brand and operated by Francis Vincent Sunday in Ghana, independent from the publishers cited above. Read our AI Transparency Policy and Editorial & Corrections Policy.