City economists doubt Bank of England will hit 4.75% by next summer
Bank of England unlikely to raise rates to 4.75% by July 2027, according to City economists
In Brief
- •Bank of England unlikely to raise rates to 4.75% by July 2027, according to City economists
- •Market expectations predict four hikes to 4.75% by July and a possible fifth to 5% by December 2027
- •ING economist James Smith says a sharp tightening cycle is unlikely and rates could be cut by end of 2027
- •Deutsche Bank’s chief UK economist Sanjay Raja estimates only ~50bps of hikes baked in, with a base case of 4.25% by February 2027
- •Bank of England is expected to raise rates to 4% at its next meeting on 5 November 2026
Why It Matters
The pace of interest rate changes directly affects borrowing costs for businesses and households, influencing investment, consumption, and inflation. A slower tightening cycle could keep borrowing cheaper, supporting growth, while a faster rise could curb inflation but risk slowing the economy. Market participants and policymakers closely monitor these forecasts to adjust expectations and policy decisions.
Key Details
- Market‑implied rate by July 2027
- 4.75%
- Market‑implied rate by December 2027
- 5%
- ING forecast rate by Feb 2027
- 4.25%
- Deutsche Bank forecast rate by Feb 2027
- 4.25%
- Next policy meeting date
- 5 November 2026
- Number of market‑implied hikes
- 4
Original Reporting & Sources
VNews is an independent briefing product. Original reporting remains credited to the following publishers:
This brief was synthesized automatically using attributed third-party reporting. VNews is a digital news publication produced under the VContent Group brand and operated by Francis Vincent Sunday in Ghana, independent from the publishers cited above. Read our AI Transparency Policy and Editorial & Corrections Policy.