New TB Vaccines Could Prevent 7.3 Million Deaths by 2050, Gavi Reports
New tuberculosis vaccines anticipated to launch starting in 2029 could prevent up to 7.3 million deaths globally between 2030 and 2050, according to Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.
In Brief
- •New tuberculosis vaccines anticipated to launch starting in 2029 could prevent up to 7.3 million deaths globally between 2030 and 2050, according to Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance.
- •The alliance estimates the new immunizations could generate up to $135 billion in economic benefits for low- and middle-income nations.
- •Demand in lower-income countries is projected to average 85 million vaccination courses annually, with higher initial demand during early multi-age catch-up campaigns.
- •Modeling by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine based these projections on a vaccine with 50 percent efficacy and protection lasting 10 years.
Why It Matters
Tuberculosis remains the world's deadliest infectious disease, responsible for an estimated 1.2 million deaths and 10.7 million new infections in 2024. Low- and middle-income countries bear 77 percent of all TB mortality, while current protection relies on the Bacille Calmette-Guérin vaccine, which is over a century old and offers waning protection into adulthood. The development of modern vaccines aimed at adolescents and adults could significantly reduce global transmission and severe disease burden, provided nations and manufacturers prepare production capacity and financing mechanisms prior to the target rollout period.
Key Details
- Potential Lives Saved (2030–2050)
- Up to 7.3 million
- Estimated Economic Benefit
- Up to $135 billion
- Target Rollout Year
- 2029
- Average Annual Course Demand
- 85 million courses
- 2024 Global TB Deaths
- 1.2 million
- Modelled Vaccine Efficacy
- 50 percent
Context & Background
The Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine, introduced over a century ago, is currently the only licensed TB vaccine. While effective at protecting infants against severe pediatric TB, its immunity wanes over time, leaving adolescents and adults vulnerable to pulmonary TB, which drives most community transmission.
Original Reporting & Sources
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