Red Sea Rivalries Threaten African States as Gulf Powers Shift Alliances
US and Israeli offensives against Iran have weakened Gulf allies' confidence in US security guarantees.
In Brief
- •US and Israeli offensives against Iran have weakened Gulf allies' confidence in US security guarantees.
- •UAE and Saudi Arabia are realigning, with UAE expanding port investments and ties to non-state actors, while Saudi backs state‑centric alliances with Egypt, Turkey, and Pakistan.
- •Ethiopia seeks sea access via Somaliland's Berbera port, but 2024 Ankara Declaration reaffirmed Somalia's sovereignty over the corridor.
- •Egypt's rivalry with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has pushed Cairo closer to Saudi Arabia and strengthened ties with Eritrea.
- •Reports in 2026 allege UAE‑linked training and logistics support for Sudan's Rapid Support Forces from Ethiopian territory, denied by both parties.
Why It Matters
The shifting alliances among Gulf powers and African states along the Red Sea are reshaping a corridor that has long been vital for global trade and regional security. As Ethiopia pushes for sea access and Egypt counters with strategic partnerships, the balance of influence in the Horn of Africa could tilt, affecting shipping lanes, energy supplies, and the stability of neighboring countries.
Key Details
- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam inauguration
- September 2025
- 2024 Ethiopia‑Somaliland cooperation memorandum
- 2024
- 2024 Ankara Declaration
- 2024
- 2026 reports of UAE‑linked training networks for Sudan's RSF
- 2026
- UAE investment in DP World Berbera port
- ongoing
- UAE‑Israel relations post‑Abraham Accords
- 2020
Context & Background
The Red Sea has historically been a critical maritime corridor linking the Mediterranean to the Indian Ocean, with African littoral states increasingly drawn into regional power contests.
Original Reporting & Sources
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